First, the good news. The risk of relapse declines with the passage of time. "The rate of smoking relapse in the 2nd-6th years of abstinence fluctuated between 2 and 4% per year, and fell to less than 1% only after 10 years of abstinence." [1]
Keep in mind that those rates were generated by ex-users who generally had little understanding of nicotine dependency and no formal respect for the Law of Addiction. If obedient to Law, our risk of failure remains zero. But just one powerful hit and the addict is back.
While ignorance of the Law is no excuse, the vast majority of successful ex-users don't remain ex-users because they understood or respected the Law, or because they'd learned about shocking "one puff" relapse rates in studies. They've never heard of the Law.
They do so because once home they discover how amazingly wonderful being free is.
Now for the bad news. While the relapse rates for years 2 through 10 may seem small, when added together the risk becomes significant. A 2008 study suggests that as many as 17% who succeed for 1 year will eventually relapse.[2]
These ex-users don't relapse because they dislike being home. They do so because they lost sight of how they got there, who they are, and the captivity they escaped.
Among educated ex-users there are three primary factors associated with relapse: (1) a natural suppression of memories of recovery's early challenges, (2) they rewrite, amend or decide to test the Law and (3) they pretend that they have a legitimate excuse to break or ignore it.
Should these factors combine with an offer of a free cigar, alcohol use around those still using[3] or occur in an impulsive-type person,[4] the risk of relapse gets magnified.
Let's briefly look at those three factors: memory suppression, amending the law, and an excuse.
References:
2. Hughes JR, et al, Relapse to smoking after 1 year of abstinence: a meta-analysis, Addictive Behaviors, December 2008, Volume 33(12), Pages 1516-1520.
3. Krall EA, et al, Smoking relapse after 2 years of abstinence: findings from the VA Normative Aging Study, Nicotine and Tobacco Research, February 2002, Volume 4(1), Pages 95-100.
4. Doran N, Impulsivity and smoking relapse, Nicotine and Tobacco Research, August 2004, Volume 6(4), Pages 641-647.
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